Stock markets are flat on Wednesday as market uncertainty lingers due to President Donald Trump's tariff campaign.

The S&P 500 peaked at 6,144 in February 2025. If the U.S. economy suffers a recession, the index could drop 31% to 4,239, provided its performance aligns with the historical average. That implies 23% downside from the current level. In short, history says the stock market would indeed crash if President Trump's tariffs cause a recession.

The economy shrank in the first quarter, weighed down by a deluge of goods imported by businesses eager to avoid higher costs, underscoring the disruptive nature of Trump's often chaotic tariff policy.